floating voter

   Also known as ‘swing voter’. A term much used in early studies of voting behaviour to describe the voters who changed their mind about which party to support from one election to another. Today the term has lost much of its former impact. Modern studies point out that the electorate itself is constantly changing, with the death of many voters and the coming of age of others, itself a factor sufficient to impact upon the political balance of the country. But more fundamentally the phrase suggests that the electorate can be divided into two categories, on the one hand the faithful supporters who form a core block of support for their particular political party and on the other hand those who – on reflection of the issues – are liable to switch their allegiance. In fact, there are many voters who offer far less than fervent support, shading off through those who offer broad sympathy to those whose support is weak and conditional. Moreover, those who do float are often not independently-minded rational thinkers but rather those who are less informed about current affairs and less moved to turn out and vote. Non-constant electors might be: voters whose involvement with the party of their choice is low and are likely abstainers; those who experiment with alternative parties but generally return to their former allegiances; those who support a minor party but may be deprived of a candidate of their highest preference; and finally those who experience a genuine conversion and transfer their allegiance. In determining the outcome of elections, much more important than the swing voter is the ability of one party in comparison with another in getting out its core support. As people become disillusioned with their favoured party, they are more likely to abstain than switch.